A fish stock assessment model using survey data when estimates of catch are unreliable

Methods of assessment that depend upon commercial catch data can be undermined by misreporting or where parts of the catch, such as discards, are not accounted for. An age-structured model that makes use of survey data alone, and avoids this problem, is developed within a Bayesian framework so that routine stock summary statistics such as fishing mortality, recruitment and spawning stock biomass can be estimated with associated levels of uncertainty. It is also possible to estimate catch on a relative scale which can be compared to reported catches. The model is applied to West of Scotland haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), a stock with suspected high catch misreporting. Stock trends derived from the model are consistent with conventional assessments that use catch data during periods of low misreporting. Estimated proportions of fish at each age in the catch correspond closely with observed values. Model estimates of total catches suggest substantial misreporting in some years, though the precision of the estimates is very low. Revised estimates of natural mortality are obtained from the model that are higher than conventional values used for this stock. These new values are generally consistent with those obtained from multispecies predation modelling for the adjacent North Sea stock. The model provides many of the basic quantities used for management advice. It should not be regarded as a replacement for more comprehensive analyses, but an additional tool to explore available data when catch information is unreliable

Creative approaches to emotional expression animation

In facial expression research, it is well established that certain emotional expressions are universally recognized. Studies into observer perception of expressions have built upon this research by highlighting the importance of particular facial regions, actions, and movements to the recognition of emotions. In many studies, the stimuli for such studies have been generated through posing by non-experts or performances by trained actors. However, character animators are required to craft recognizable, believable emotional facial expressions as a part of their profession. In this poster, the authors discuss some of the creative processes employed in their research into emotional expressions, and how practice-led research into expression animation might offer a new perspective on the generation of believable emotional expressions

Fish population dynamics, monitoring and management sustainable fisheries in the eternal ocean By I. Aoki, T. Yamakawa & A. Takasuka Springer, Japan, 2018

In the words on the cover of this book “it offers readers a broad understanding of the current methods and theory for sustainable exploitation of fisheries resources, and introduces recent findings and technological developments.” This is a fair description of its scope which is covered in just under 250 pages. Inevitably for a concise volume with such a breadth of material to include, some topics are dealt with in a very cursory manner and there are notable omissions, but it makes a good read, especially for those interested in learning about how fisheries are managed in the seas around Japan

Stock collapse or stock recovery? Contrasting perceptions of a depleted cod stock

ICES assessments of cod (Gadus morhua) in the west of Scotland (ICES Division 6a) suggest the biomass has collapsed and that fishing mortality rate (F) has remained high. In contrast, other stocks in the same fishery, and adjacent cod stocks all show marked declines in fishing mortality and some recovery of the biomass. The perception of the status of 6a cod appears to be dependent on the assumption that the fishery exploitation pattern is flat topped. An assessment that allows the exploitation to take a domed shape produces results that suggest a marked decline in fishing mortality rate and that the spawning stock biomass has recovered to the minimum biomass reference point, B lim. The reduction in F is consistent with substantial reductions in fishing effort and shows a similar pattern to stocks taken within the same fishery. The management implications arising from the two assessments differ substantially. The analysis indicates that benchmark assessments need to test assessment model conditioning assumptions more widely and that management advice needs to consider a more comprehensive range of information about the stock and fishery

Considerations for believable emotional facial expression animation

Facial expressions can be used to communicate emotional states through the use of universal signifiers within key regions of the face. Psychology research has identified what these signifiers are and how different combinations and variations can be interpreted. Research into expressions has informed animation practice, but as yet very little is known about the movement within and between emotional expressions. A better understanding of sequence, timing, and duration could better inform the production of believable animation. This paper introduces the idea of expression choreography, and how tests of observer perception might enhance our understanding of moving emotional expressions

Investigating facial animation production through artistic inquiry

Studies into dynamic facial expressions tend to make use of experimental methods based on objectively manipulated stimuli. New techniques for displaying increasingly realistic facial movement and methods of measuring observer responses are typical of computer animation and psychology facial expression research. However, few projects focus on the artistic nature of performance production. Instead, most concentrate on the naturalistic appearance of posed or acted expressions. In this paper, the authors discuss a method for exploring the creative process of emotional facial expression animation, and ask whether anything can be learned about authentic dynamic expressions through artistic inquiry

The effects of grey seal predation and commercial fishing on the recovery of a depleted cod stock

Cod (Gadus morhua) are preyed upon by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and there is debate over the impact this has had on the decline of stocks and their prospects for recovery. We analysed a depleted stock to the West of Scotland and show that seal predation rate is consistent with a type II functional response. Forward projections of a model including the functional response under varying levels of fishing and seal population size suggest that stock recovery is possible under current conditions but there is a modest probability that the stock will decline further in both the short and long term. The potential recovery is fragile and sensitive to relatively small increases in either fishing or seal predation. Forward projection models that exclude the functional response estimate a lower probability of stock decline and may underestimate the risk to the stock. At low stock sizes and high fishing mortality rates functional response models project slower recovery but the opposite is true at low fishing mortality

Comment on "Fisheries Management"

The recent article by O’Leary et al. (2011) raises an important question about the relationship between science and those who manage fisheries. They contend that fishery managers do not give due cognisance to scientific advice and consistently set Total Allowable Catches (TACs) above values advised by scientists (which they define as ‘‘political adjustment’’). The authors claim that the consequence of this is that there is a high probability of stock collapse in the next 40 years. They use a simulation model to argue that this probability may exceed 80% at the mean level of political adjustment adopted by managers, depending on the degree of environmental variability and life history strategy of the fish